Kaupo Rosin, Director General of the Foreign Intelligence Service, told ERR that Russia currently has no plans to attack the Baltic states or NATO. Estonia's task is to keep the situation as it is.
Russia is trying to halt Europe's militarization. They talk about peace and claim that militarization takes money away from other sectors, such as social services.
Rosin said that Russia has changed its behavior following NATO's reactions. For example, drone incursions into NATO airspace have decreased.
Russian aircraft over the Baltic Sea now fly very precisely. They carefully monitor their flight trajectories to avoid incidents.
There have been no cable disruptions in the Baltic Sea since the NATO mission. This does not mean that incidents cannot occur in the future.
Rosin said that Russia aims to maintain freedom of movement in the Baltic Sea. Oil shipments through the Baltic Sea are important to Russia.
The French recently conducted an operation where they boarded a Russian shadow fleet tanker. This shows that the shadow fleet is not completely untouchable.
Estonia was affected by two disruptive incidents. One was a Russian aircraft's incursion into Estonian airspace for 12 minutes. The other was the Saatse Boot incident.
Russia conducted large internal defense exercises near the borders of Estonia, Latvia, and Finland. These exercises were related to events in Ukraine.
Russia also recruited several people from Estonia. This shows activity on Estonian territory.
Rosin said that sabotage activities are conducted with the knowledge of Russia's leadership. These are aimed at undermining support for Ukraine.
The concept of hybrid attacks is not precise. It is better to use specific terms such as sabotage or cyberattacks.
Russia is trying to hinder Europe's militarization. They talk about peace, but at the same time, they influence political parties and population groups.
When the war in Ukraine ends, Russia may become more self-confident. This could increase risks for Estonia.
Russia's economy is struggling due to sanctions. For example, oil prices have fallen and revenues have decreased.
Russian society is turning into a war society. Veterans and the vulnerable have influence at the local level.
Estonia must invest in its defense to keep the situation stable. NATO and the European Union must do the same.