Demographer Mark Gortfelder says that if current trends continue, by the end of the century the proportion of Estonians in Estonia could be half of what it is now.
The number of births has decreased. This means that future generations will be smaller. This is a negative trend.
Gortfelder says that Estonian statistics show significant immigration. This means the proportion of Estonians could drop to 50 percent.
The decline in birth rates is a major problem. European population forecasts have been revised downward in recent years.
Gortfelder noted that birth rates have declined in the Baltic region and Eastern Europe. Crises such as the war in Ukraine and economic problems are affecting this. But there is also a long-term trend where people are having fewer children.
In Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, the number of potential childbearing women has decreased. This means fewer children are being born.
Population decline affects Estonian society. For example, it may change military service or education.
Gortfelder says that in the future we need to focus on important things like transport and education, not luxury items.
According to Statistics Estonia, the population of Estonia decreased by 9,250 people in 2025. The reasons for this were negative natural increase and negative net migration.
Many people with different citizenships live in Estonia. 82.2 percent have Estonian citizenship, 5.5 percent have Russian citizenship, and 4.6 percent have Ukrainian citizenship.