The Reform Party and the Estonian Conservative People's Party (EKRE) will not benefit if they start arguing over values or culture. Aivar Voog says this will not help them.
Voog explained that if one side is strong and the other is weak, the strong side can win. However, if both sides are weak, it will not help either.
The Kantar Emor survey showed that EKRE lost support to Isamaa. Meanwhile, the Social Democrats benefited from the Reform Party's confusion in Tallinn.
Voog said that EKRE and Isamaa are moving in opposite directions. If one's rating rises, the other's falls. This is because their voters are similar.
The Center Party's support has been around 18-20% over the last four months. EKRE fluctuates between 12-15%. If EKRE's rating drops, Isamaa's rises.
Voog does not believe that Isamaa's position is affected by the Oleg Bessedin case or that Isamaa did not become mayor in Tartu.
Isamaa has been a leading party in Estonia for two years. That is a long time. Only the Reform Party has done this before.
The Center Party's support may rise due to successful city management in Tallinn. Voog said the Center Party has become clearer for voters of other nationalities.
Among Estonians, the Center Party's support has slightly declined. Voog said the Center Party could rise if its image improves among Estonians.
The Reform Party's support depends on the economy. If the economy grows, the Reform Party's rating may also rise. Voog said consumer confidence has already improved slightly.
Voog believes the Reform Party's support may not recover immediately. He cited Isamaa as an example, whose rating was very low some time ago but then rose.
The Reform Party cannot do like Isamaa, which changed its leaders. Voog said the Reform Party has already changed its leader.
The Social Democratic Party (SDE) rating has risen after leaving the coalition. Voog said if SDE had come to power in Tallinn, its rating would have risen even more.
The right-wing has strengthened its position. Voog said they have stable support and have shown they can achieve something.