22.8% of people support Isamaa and 22% support Keskerakond. This is the result of the Norstat survey.
Isamaa's support has fallen by 2.9% over the past four weeks. The last time support was this low was in November 2023. Keskerakond's support remains the same.
In third place is the Social Democratic Party (SDE) with 16% support. This is their best result in two years. However, the gap between them and the top two is significant.
In fourth place is Reform Party with 14% and fifth is EKRE with 13.1% support.
Parempoolsed has 6.8% support and Eesti 200 has 1.4%. Koos party has 1% support and the Greens 0.7%. ERK has 0.4%.
15.4% support coalition parties and 73.9% support the opposition.
According to political scientist Martin Mölder, Isamaa and Keskerakond can no longer form a majority now. Isamaa would get 25 seats and Keskerakond 24.
SDE would get 17, Reform Party 15, EKRE 14, and Parempoolsed 6 seats.
Among Estonians, Isamaa has the highest support (26.5%). Next come SDE (18.4%), Reform Party (16.1%), EKRE (14.8%), Keskerakond (11.6%), and Parempoolsed (8.8%).
Among other ethnicities, 70.9% support Keskerakond. Support for other parties is 4-5%.
Men mostly support Isamaa (26.8%). Keskerakond is supported by 20.2%, EKRE by 18.6%, Reform Party by 11.3%, SDE by 9.1%, and Parempoolsed by 8.2%.
Women mostly support Keskerakond (23.5%) and SDE (21.9%). Isamaa is supported by 19.3%, Reform Party by 16.3%, EKRE by 8.4%, and Parempoolsed by 5.5%.
In Tallinn, Keskerakond is the most popular (35.5%). Second is SDE (23.2%).
Reform Party has 11.4% support in Tallinn and Isamaa 9.9%. In May, Isamaa's support was 18%.
EKRE has 8% support in Tallinn and Parempoolsed 6.8%.
The survey was conducted from August 24 to September 19. 4000 people were interviewed.