President Trump announced that he is disappointed in Russia. He promised new military equipment to Ukraine. U.S. policy expert Andreas Kaju said that there has been a shift in the American administration. Now it is understood that goodwill statements alone will not lead Russia and Ukraine toward peace.
A mechanism has been agreed upon where NATO member states will start purchasing heavy weapons from the U.S. This will help ensure Ukraine's defense. This is a change, as since January, America's main effort has been directed at getting Russians to the negotiation table through goodwill statements. The hope was that this would quickly lead to a ceasefire. That has not happened.
Kaju said that in America, the number of people in Trump's inner circle who accuse the Russian administration and Putin of deceiving Trump has grown. Trump himself has also spoken out about some of this. Life will show whether this decision is a longer-term policy shift or just a step to bring Russians to the negotiation table.
Kaju does not believe that sending weapons to Europe is solely a way for Trump to make money. Recent communications have not mentioned making money. The main point is that it is impossible to negotiate with Putin otherwise. There is a need to focus on arming Ukraine. Putin is attacking civilian infrastructure and populations, which is causing changes in America's behavior.
Trump's sentimentality toward Ukraine's civilian population is not the first instance where war events have influenced his opinion. The Syrian regime's actions against its civilian population have moved Trump. The suffering of civilians has contributed to America's policy shifts.
Kaju said that U.S. presidents are accustomed to sympathy. Among Americans, Reagan had the most encounters with Russians. The security apparatus around Reagan was against it because they did not trust a B-list actor on the big stage. Russians are professional negotiators.
Putin's nature is no surprise to Americans. Attempts were made to resolve the war diplomatically. A positive negotiation space achieves nothing. Trump has sent his special envoy Witkoff to distribute promises, but it has not been useful. Russians have not reciprocated goodwill statements. President Trump has understood that goodwill alone is not enough.
Kaju believes that Witkoff has been used to test the waters in Russia. The negotiation matrix with Russians and Ukrainians has been messy. Witkoff's role has been to try to understand if negotiations are possible.
Kaju said that the U.S. has finally realized that in Russia, one person decides—President Putin. If he is not interested in talking, he will not talk. Americans now know what Estonia has known for a long time—in the Russian Federation, one person decides.