El Niño originates in the Pacific Ocean and changes water temperature there. This brings weather changes to many countries.
In Estonia, El Niño does not directly affect summer weather. Here, weather is determined more by local winds and pressure systems. For example, it can be cool on the coast while it's hot inland.
El Niño causes heavy rains in South America. At the same time, droughts are frequent in Australia and Indonesia. These changes are natural and have been occurring for thousands of years.
Climate change is making El Niño's effects stronger. Higher temperatures give more energy to the atmosphere. This means weather phenomena become more intense.
In Estonia, the end of May was warmer than usual. The coast had about 15 degrees, while inland reached up to 30 degrees. In June, we can expect variable weather - short heatwaves and thunderstorms.
Long-term forecasts are difficult to make. For example, we can't say exactly whether it will rain or snow on Midsummer Day. The second half of summer may be more stable and drier.
In conclusion: El Niño affects world weather, but has little impact on Estonian summer. Here, weather depends more on local conditions.