Russia exports 60 percent of its oil by sea, through the Baltic Sea. Recent studies show that at least 40 percent of Russia's oil export volume has been halted.
This halt is highly impactful. For example, in 2022, Russia earned €242 billion from oil exports. In 2025, it was €200 billion, or 18 percent less.
Terminal board member Alan Vaht said: "No sanction has been as effective as Ukraine's attacks on oil ports."
Currently, three and a half million barrels of oil are being exported from Russia daily. Although the war does not end with these strikes, the damage to the state budget is significant.
Vaht added: "If 40 percent of exports are halted by Ust-Luga and Primorsk ports, Russia loses about $50 to $55 million every day."
Additionally, Russia produces a lot of fuel oil during oil refining, which is neither used nor exported. This disrupts production and reduces the export of oil products.
Economist Raivo Vare said: "If too much fuel oil accumulates, it is impossible to produce additional diesel and gasoline. Therefore, exports suffer even more, up to 50 percent."
Surprisingly, workers at the Ust-Luga port have begun protesting. Such protests have not been seen in Russia before. Raivo Vare said: "Workers protested because the port was shut down and the police came. This has never happened before."
Drone attacks on Russian ports do not affect Estonia much. Although the smoke from the Ust-Luga fire was visible in Narva and Sillamäe, it is unlikely that the smoke will reach Estonia.
Kaido Ennok, a synoptic at the Environmental Agency, said: "At higher levels, there is a southwest wind that blows the smoke away. Near the ground, the wind does not carry it far. If the smoke were to come, it would only be at the beginning of the month."