Russia has an interest in keeping the Baltic Sea as problem-free and navigable as possible. Their exports depend on the stability of the Baltic Sea.
Strategically speaking, Moscow doesn't need this mess. However, Russia is also characterized by a chaotic situation. Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that one hand doesn't know what the other is doing.
According to Vosman, the incidents in the Baltic Sea in recent years have been accidental. Increased maritime traffic, poor infrastructure, and inexperienced crews are to blame.
Cable breaks have happened before, but they weren't talked about. The longer the West allows the Russian Navy to operate in the Baltic Sea, the more likely something new will happen.
Vosman does not consider a conventional war against Estonia likely in the near future. Warnings from Ukraine regarding the Baltics are more intended to prompt quick action from the West.
Vosman says that messages from Western politicians and intelligence services are often aimed at domestic audiences. For example, Germany wanted a pretext to increase defense spending.