US intelligence believes that Russia may test NATO in the coming years. Possible actions include small-scale attacks or cyberattacks.
Previously, the US believed that Putin would not attack NATO while the war in Ukraine continues. Now, however, it is thought that Putin needs a victory in Ukraine. Ukrainian drone attacks are causing damage to Russia.
The US currently has shortages in weapons and ammunition. This has been exacerbated by aid provided to Ukraine. The US lacks sufficient long-range missiles and air defense systems.
US and European leaders note that Russia is testing NATO's response. For example, Russian drones have flown into Polish and Romanian airspace.
US intelligence believes that Putin wants to divide NATO. The question is how the US would respond.
If Putin does not achieve the desired results in Ukraine, he may increase pressure on NATO. Possible actions include cyberattacks and small-scale military incursions.
The likelihood of a limited ground incursion is low. This would trigger NATO Article 5, which provides for collective defense.
The US is concerned about its weapons stockpiles. For example, it lacks Patriot and THAAD missile defense systems. The Pentagon says there are no shortages.
Experts believe that the use of weapons in the Middle East reduces the US's ability to deter adversaries. The US has fewer missiles than needed.