This week, three polling firms released numbers on party support. These firms are Norstat, Emor, and Turu-uuringute AS.
The Turu-uuringute survey showed that the Keskerakond has risen to the top of the ratings. They said that the Keskerakond is ahead of Isamaa by five percentage points.
However, the Norstat survey stated that Isamaa is ahead of the Keskerakond by five percentage points as well. The Emor survey said that Isamaa is ahead of the Keskerakond, but the difference is very small.
These differences may cause confusion. But when considering the margin of error, the differences might not be as significant.
For example, in the Emor survey, Isamaa's support was 23.5 percent. The margin of error was ±2.2 percent. This means that Isamaa's support was in the range of 21.3 to 25.7 percent. This is not far from Turu-uuringute's 20 percent or Norstat's 26.6 percent.
The Keskerakond's support in the Emor survey was 20.6 percent. With the margin of error, this was in the range of 18.5 to 22.7 percent. This means that the Keskerakond could have been ahead of Isamaa.
Polling expert Aivar Voog stated that the difference in support between Isamaa and the Keskerakond is not statistically significant.
The different results also stem from differences in methodologies. Each firm uses different methods.
Norstat surveys over 1000 people weekly. They use phone and web surveys. Emor surveys 1500 people monthly. Turu-uuringud most recently surveyed 903 people.
Each firm's survey period and sample size are different. This also affects the results.