Russia's war in Ukraine has weakened their economy, human resources, and armaments. After the war, it will take them 5-10 years to prepare again. Meanwhile, Estonia and NATO are stronger than ever.
Estonia's defense is based on three things: strong artillery, good air defense, and the people's readiness to defend their country. Estonia has modern weapons like the K9 Kõu and HIMARS. For air defense, there are IRIS-T systems and anti-drone defenses. Additionally, Estonia has 7,000 military personnel, 38,000 members of the Defense League, and 40,000 reservists.
The war in Ukraine has shown that defense is easier than attack. Estonia's forested terrain and few roads make attacks difficult. Russia has not been able to solve a similar problem in Ukraine.
Estonia also has weaknesses. For example, the Russian-speaking population in Ida-Viru County may be susceptible to Russian propaganda. Estonia is also small and vulnerable to large-scale attacks. Therefore, NATO support is crucial.
Russian forces near Estonia are weaker than believed. There are about 5,000-15,000 soldiers, not 40,000 as before. They have lost many forces in Ukraine.
If Russia tried to attack Estonia, it would be difficult for them. NATO assistance would arrive quickly, and Russian forces would be trapped. Such an attack would end badly for Russia.
More likely is a hybrid attack, where Russia would try to create confusion. But even this may not succeed, as Estonia is prepared and the people are loyal.
In conclusion: Russia cannot successfully attack Estonia in the near future. Estonia is ready, and NATO supports it. However, Estonia must continue to strengthen its defense.