Russia wants to achieve results in Ukraine this year. They want to tell their citizens that they are successful. However, Russia has no plans to end the war quickly.
Rainer Saks says that we see two things. First, peace talks are taking place. Second, there are many battles on the front. Russia is making major demands on Ukraine.
Saks believes that Russia does not plan to fight until 2026. They have many problems. Peace talks are important to them. Over the past four years, the war has not brought results. Therefore, Russia must reconsider its plans.
Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke almost exclusively about the war in his New Year's address. At the beginning of the war, Putin wanted to show that the war was far away. Now his speech is like a plea for help.
This shows that the Russian army has problems. They are not getting enough new soldiers. Since September, their losses have been very high. There are fewer attacks on the front.
Russia's political system is based on a strong president. The president must not show weakness. Even if they are weak, they speak publicly with strength. This is important both for the enemy and for their own people.
There is no quick solution to the war. Russia may surprise in order to influence peace talks. But Saks believes that Russia wants to achieve something this year. They want to say that they are successful in Ukraine.