The population of Tallinn decreased last year, and this decline has continued this year. At the beginning of the year, Tallinn had fewer than 460,000 residents. As of May, the population was slightly over 457,000, which is 2,400 fewer than at the start of the year.
Last year, Tallinn's population decreased by just over 1,300 people. The year before, it grew by about 600 people. Growth also occurred in 2023 (around 3,500) and 2022 (+13,500). The main reason for the significant growth was the arrival of Ukrainian refugees. In April 2022 alone, Tallinn's population grew by 2,000 people.
Due to migration, Tallinn has had more years of growth than decline. However, since 2020, natural population growth has been negative, meaning deaths have outnumbered births.
Last year, the decline in natural growth was smaller than in the previous few years (-776). Although fewer than 10,000 children were born in Estonia, the number of births in Tallinn actually increased (3,409 vs. 3,262 the year before).
This year, from January to May, there was only one month when the number of births in Tallinn exceeded last year's figures. In May, 260 children were born in the capital, which is eight more than last year. Over the remaining four months, the number of births was 68 fewer than during the same period last year, meaning 60 fewer children were born in Tallinn in the first five months.
Since 2020, deaths have outnumbered births in Tallinn. From 2021 to 2024, approximately a thousand more people died than were born each year. Last year, this gap narrowed.
The number of births in Tallinn has been declining since 2017. Last year, this trend began to reverse. While 5,126 children were born in Tallinn in 2016, only 3,262 were born in 2024—a decline of nearly 40% over nine years.
Although the number of births is decreasing, the number of deaths is also declining. This prevents the natural growth rate from falling even deeper into negative territory.
Migration balance has also turned negative. Compared to previous decades, the 2020s have seen lower birth rates. Looking back to the 1990s, more children were born, and the natural growth rate was less negative.
For example, in 1997 and 1998, just over 3,000 children were born annually, and the natural growth rate was around -2,000. In 1994, the natural growth rate was -2,631.
Thus, it can be said that positive and negative natural growth alternate in Tallinn every few decades. Population forecasts predict growth in the coming decades.
If the population grows, much of this growth will come from migration, or mechanical growth. This consists of internal and external migration. Internal migration refers to people moving to Tallinn from elsewhere in Estonia or leaving Tallinn for other parts of Estonia. External migration refers to people arriving from other countries or leaving for other countries.
Last year, Tallinn's migration balance was -3,171 people. Of this, internal migration accounted for -2,177, and external migration for -994. In 2024, Tallinn's migration balance was -198, but external migration was positive (+808).
Internal migration has been negative in Tallinn since 2018. During this time, over 12,000 more people have left Tallinn for other parts of Estonia than have moved in. For example, from 2015 to 2017, nearly 4,800 more people moved to Tallinn from elsewhere in Estonia than left.
Combining internal and external migration, Tallinn's migration balance was positive by over 40,000 people from 2015 to 2025. The city's population grew by approximately 38,000 during this period. However, in 2022, when Russia's war against Ukraine began, Tallinn's external migration was positive by 20,000 people.
External migration statistics show that the migration balance for German and Finnish citizens has been negative in recent years, meaning more people have left than arrived. The migration balance is positive for Ukrainian and British citizens.
The latest forecast predicts population growth in Tallinn. By 2035, the population is expected to grow by 6,200, and by 2050, by around 22,300. If the forecast holds, Tallinn will have nearly 480,000 residents by mid-century.
The forecast assumes that migration balance will remain at the average level of the past decade. Additionally, it is expected that the number of births will first decline, then rise, while the number of deaths per year will decrease.
According to the forecast, Tallinn's population will grow in the future. The number of children under 9 will decline until 2033 and then begin to rise. The share of residents under 19 will decrease by four percentage points, while the share of those aged 60 and over will increase by six percentage points.